If you use an EMSI product or service, chances are you’ve seen some of our labour market projections. We provide detailed job estimates, by industry and occupation, for the next several years from the current year. A common question that we get from clients who see these figures is ‘where do EMSI projections come from?’. The short answer is that we create our projections based on past trends carried forward and published projections from regional and national sources.
At first we start with our robust industry data. We first create simple short-, mid-, and long-term trend lines for every industry and county based on the historical data. Those lines are then averaged and dampened to prevent extreme change. We then incorporate national industry projections (Working Futures national employment projections) as well as regional projections provided by the government to adjust these numbers again.